Noa Peled

Noa Peled is a Senior Research Associate in the Optimal Policy and Applications Division at the Institute for Advanced Dynamic Uncertainty. She holds a PhD from the Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, an interdisciplinary research centre whose focus on the mathematical and philosophical foundations of decision-making under uncertainty aligns precisely with her research interests. Her doctoral thesis developed axiomatic representation theorems for a class of ambiguity-sensitive preferences defined over acts on infinite state spaces, establishing conditions under which a decision-maker's behaviour is consistent with a convex set of priors and a generalised form of maxmin expected utility.

Peled's research sits at the intersection of mathematical decision theory, the axiomatic foundations of rational choice, and the design of decision procedures for agents operating under Knightian uncertainty — situations in which probabilities themselves are unknown or unquantifiable. She has worked on the relationship between ambiguity aversion and the geometry of the set of priors, on sequential decision problems where the decision-maker's beliefs are updated in a manner consistent with dynamic consistency, and on the mathematical conditions under which robust decision rules converge to standard expected utility as uncertainty is resolved.

At IADU, her research addresses the implications of ambiguity aversion for optimal policy design: how a regulator or central bank that cannot assign precise probabilities to economic scenarios should formulate a control policy, how HJB equations are modified when the planner is ambiguity-averse rather than risk-averse, and how robust optimal control theory provides a rigorous alternative to standard stochastic optimisation in policy settings where model uncertainty is irreducible.